民生经济

农村主街经济跌至疫情初期低点
40%的农民预计到2024年将赔钱

2024年9月调查结果一览:

• The Rural Mainstreet Index plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and fell below growth neutral for the 13th straight month.
• For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank.  
•平均而言, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to fall by 5.2% in the next year with almost one-fourth anticipating price declines between 10% and 20%. 
• Farm equipment sales sank for the 14th straight month.
•平均而言, bankers expect almost 40% of farmers in the region to experience negative 2024 farm income.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $57.000万(0).8%),较2023年同期下降.
 

皇冠体育博彩大学农村主街指数(RMI)

在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈市. (9月. 19, 2024) —  连续第13个月, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the September survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

总体: 该地区9月份的整体指数跌至37.40选5.八月九日. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0代表增长中性.

“农产品价格疲软, sinking agriculture equipment sales and elevated input costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 13th straight month,厄尼·高斯说, 博士学位, 杰克. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at 皇冠体育博彩大学’s 海德商学院.

吉姆·埃克特, 锚州银行的首席执行官, 伊利诺斯州, 说, “我们这个地区还没有真正开始收获, but a couple of farmers (who always have to be first) have combined some early corn varieties, and the results suggest that the crop will be good but 下来 from 2022 and 2023.”

银行家对9月份的其他评论:
•特里•恩格尔肯, 华盛顿州立银行副总裁, 爱荷华州, reported that “Early yields for both corn and soybeans are very good.”
•杰夫•邦尼特, 哈瓦那国家银行的首席执行官, 伊利诺斯州, 说, “The question regarding what percent of our area farmers will have a net loss for 2024 is interesting. 基于目前玉米和大豆的价格约为1美元.50 to $2.00 below break even, I believe this will be a high percentage.”  

农牧用地价格:  For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank. 该地区的农田指数跌至43.从八月的45降到8.5. “只有4.2% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from August levels,高斯说。.

On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 5.未来12个月的增长率为3%. 更令人担忧的是, approximately one-fourth of bankers anticipate a 10% to 20% 下来turn in farmland prices over the next year,高斯说。.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $57.000万(0).8%),较2023年同期下降.

农用设备销售: The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0从16.7. “This is the 14th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. 更高的借贷成本, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,高斯说。.

在整个亚洲地区,银行家们预计约为39人.1%的农民将在2024年经历负农业收入.  

银行:  The September loan volume index slipped to a still strong 68.75选8.0. 支票存款指数攀升至41.34选3.8月1日. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments climbed to 56.52选5.8月3日. The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 22 straight months.

招聘:  9月份的新招聘指数降至43.45选5.8月5日.

信心: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. 9月份的信心指数跌至22.9, its lowest level since November of last year, and 下来 from 27.8月3日. “农产品价格疲软, 农场现金流为负, combined with 下来turns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, 继续抑制银行家的信心,高斯说。. 

家居及零售销售:  After August’s growth neutral reading for home sales, the home sales index fell to 43.8. 同样的, 区域零售销售, 就像这个国家一样, 在9月指数为30的情况下,美国股市表现非常疲弱.4个,是自2020年6月以来的最低水平,低于38个.8月6日.

“消费者债务高企, elevated interest rates and weaker farm income are cutting into retail sales for the Rural 民生经济,高斯说。.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. 高斯和比尔·麦克奎兰, former Chairman of the Independent 社区 Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

以下是各州的报告

科罗拉多州

The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for September increased to 61.从8月的51下降到6.1. The farmland and ranchland price index for September rose to 60.0从51.2在八月. 该州的新招聘指数攀升至63.50选3.2在八月. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $152.700万或206万.比2023年同期下降5%.

伊利诺斯州

该州9月份的RMI跌至43.从8月的44降到9.5. 耕地价格指数降至45.45选7.八月九日. 该州的新招聘指数降至45.45选2.八月九日. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were 下来 by $139.0万或5万.比2023年同期下降1%.

根据Jeff Bonnett的说法, 哈瓦那国家银行的首席执行官, “Thankfully on the east side of the 伊利诺斯州 River (irrigated ground), 我们的农场生产者可以种植玉米种子, 爆米花, 青豆, 土豆, pumpkins and other contracted vegetables to manage their profitability. 进入收获季节, 这是现实, and utilizing options was not as advantageous this year either.”
 

爱荷华州

9月份该州的RMI略微下降至44.从44开始.2在八月. 爱荷华州9月份的农田价格指数跌至45.53选7.8月4日. 爱荷华州9月份的新招聘指数升至52.从8月的51下降了4.6. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were 下来 by $8.100万还是0万.比2023年同期下降8%.  

堪萨斯

堪萨斯州9月份RMI指数跌至34.34选1.2在八月. 该州的农田价格指数跌至42.43选3.8月0日. 堪萨斯州的新招聘指数降至39.42选6.8月3日. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $49.1亿还是6亿.比2023年同期下降7%.

明尼苏达州

明尼苏达州9月份的RMI跌至48.从8月的49起.3. 明尼苏达州的农田价格指数降至42.47选2.上个月3日. 9月份的新招聘指数降至43.47选2.8月6日. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were 下来 by $30.800万还是400万.比2023年同期下降5%.

密苏里州

该州9月份的RMI跌至53.从8月的55降到5.6. 9月份的耕地价格指数升至63.53选8.上个月9日. The state’s new hiring gauge for September expanded to 63.从八月的55降到8.9. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were 下来 by $164.600万或2300万.比2023年同期下降3%.

内布拉斯加州

内布拉斯加州9月份RMI跌至35.36选1.8月5日. The state’s farmland price index for September dropped to 42.43选7.8月6日. 内布拉斯加州9月新增就业指数跌至42.43选7.上个月1日. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $140.100万还是37万.比2023年同期下降8%.

北达科他

北达科他州9月份的RMI升至41.40选3.8月3日. 该州的农田价格指数攀升至45.从44开始.八月七日. 该州的新招聘指数降至41.44选4.八月七日. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $56.一百万还是一千万.比2023年同期下降4%.

南达科塔州

南达科他州9月份的RMI上升到46.从44开始.8月6日. 该州的农田价格指数上升到46.46选3.8月0日. 南达科塔州’s September new hiring index climbed to 46.42选5.4. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $3.300万或400万.比2023年同期下降2%.

怀俄明

怀俄明州9月份的RMI指数跌至34.35选8.8月3日. The September farmland and ranchland price index dropped to 41.从8月的43岁到6岁.3. 怀俄明州的新招聘指数降至40.42选6.八月七日. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were 下来 by $1.700万或46万.比2023年同期下降7%.

表1和表2 总结调查结果. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, October 17th, 2024.